世界猪肉博览会,加拿大-种植业和自驾之旅

2017-06-30 17:28:03   加裕公司 浏览量:142
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  2017年6月21日周价格表
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  加拿大-种植业和自驾之旅
  
  Canada – Planting & Road Trip
  
  Bob Fraser –加裕公司安大略省销售服务
  
  Bob Fraser – Sales & Service, Genesus Ontario
  
  bfraser@genesus.com
  
  安大略已经经历了类似于北美大部分地区的经历,至少以过去几年的经验来看,我们以为玉米是在4月份播种,大多数生产商认为这是一个“晚来的春天”。今年春天又湿又冷,至少在开始的时候是这样,但也许比我们想象的要更接近正常。根据安大略农业食品与乡村事务部地区作物团队6月6日的数据,大约大豆已经播种了40%,同时玉米预期种植面积已经播种了90-95%。可食用的咖啡豆几乎是按计划进行的,至少在6月20日之前没有实际的减少产量。安大略省三种典型作物轮作中,冬季小麦看起来相当不错,而且在大多数地区所有都已播种。
  
  Ontario has experienced like apparently large parts of North America what most producers would deem a “backward spring” at least from the experiences of the last number of years where we’ve come to believe corn is suppose to go in April. This spring has been wet and cold at least to begin but perhaps a little closer to normal than we’ve come to think. According to the OMAFRA Field Crop Team as of June 6th approximately 40% of soybeans are planted with 90 – 95% of the intended corn acreage planted. Edible beans are rolling in pretty much on schedule with no real loss in yield at least up to June 20th. Winter wheat that rounds out the typical three crop rotation of Ontario looks quite good and in most areas is all headed out.
  
  这些使得我自驾去了爱荷华州的得梅因,参加世界猪肉博览会。沿着I-69、I-94和I- 80几条路,可以从车中看到的一种完全不科学的农作物之旅,似乎显示出一幅类似的画面。尽管有迹象表明可能会有大量的降水延迟大部分作物播种,但是似乎作物都已播种下去,虽然跟几年前比可能有推迟,但看起来平衡得相当好,跟“以往”没有相差太多。我们理解那些没有收获的人不会欣赏这篇评论,但这是我开车去乡村的原因。此外,至少目前市场似乎支持这种观点,因为任何关于“传染病与流行病”的言论,市场都没有明显的反应。这对利润率来说是一个好兆头,因为安大略省的生产商在许多种植作物和饲养生猪的问题上都是矛盾的,目前看来至少粮食价格是稳定的,因此饲料价格也将保持相对稳定。
  
  This brings me to the road trip to Des Moines Iowa for the World Pork Expo. A totally unscientific crop tour of what you can see from the car along I-69, I-94 and I-80 appeared to be showing a similar picture. Although there was signs of perhaps too much rain and delays most of the crop appeared to be in and although perhaps delayed from some years looked on balance quite good and not far from “normal”. Appreciate those without crop in won’t appreciate this assessment but that’s my take from driving the countryside. Also the market at least for now seems to support that view as there has been no significant movement in response to any talk of “plague and pestilence”. This bodes well for margins as though Ontario producers are conflicted as many grow crops as well as feed hogs it appears for now at least grain prices and hence feed prices are going to remain relatively stable.
  
  这再加上猪价的反弹,似乎为世界猪肉博览会带来了一种相对乐观的气氛,这种氛围也反映在了我在展会中采访的整个安大略生产商们身上。安大略似乎像美国一样正在经历一些扩张,但要完全确定有点难度。我采访过一位同事,他在一家建设猪场和销售生猪设备的公司工作。他说,他不知道他为什么参加这个展会,因为他现在最不需要的就是增加今年的工作量。他声明说,等待漏缝地板需要3个月,而更换设备则需要4个月。尽管这是美国的情况,我在加拿大也听过类似的故事。从表面上看,这种需求似乎预示着扩张,或许是大规模扩张。然而,人们需要考虑的是,这是否也是供应的反映。在加拿大和美国,由于前10年的艰难时期,许多建筑商和设备供应商转而关注其他行业。建筑商也开始向商业、工业甚至住宅市场转移,这也相应降低了养猪行业的生产能力。因此,我们也许不能从这些设备和建筑材料上的全部预定和延期上,得出我们通常以为的扩张。随着管理制度,资本和劳动力需求的增加,似乎至少有一些管理者在扩张。然而,随着时间的推移,“时间会证明一切”。
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  This coupled with a rebounding hog price seem to be contributing a relatively upbeat mood at World Pork Expo and was reflected in the entire Ontario producer I spoke to at the show. Ontario seems to like the USA be experiencing some expansion but it is a little difficult to fully assess. I spoke at the show to one associate who works for a company building swine barns and selling hog equipment. He said he wasn’t sure why he was at the show as the last thing he needed right now was more work for the year. Stated that the wait for slats was now 3 months, on ESF equipment 4 months. Although this was for the US I’ve heard similar stories in Canada. On the surface this type of demand would seem to indicate expansion and perhaps major expansion. However one needs to consider whether it’s also a reflection of supply. In both Canada and the US because of challenging times of the previous decade to 2014 many builders and equipment suppliers moved to focusing on other species. Builders also moved to commercial, industrial and even residential opportunities with a corresponding drop in capacity for the swine industry. Therefore full books and delays in equipment and building materials perhaps don’t translate to the expansion we may have normally thought from these signals. This along with increasing regulation, capital and labour requirements appears to put at least some governor on expansion. However like the crop “time will tell” as the year continues to unfold.
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  承蒙鲍勃·汉斯伯格的好意,沃伦斯坦农场供应表现出乐观情绪的驱动力。预计未来12个月的利润为24.75美元,当前平均生产成绩的利润为44.88美元,而优秀生产成绩的利润为63.30美元。跟管理者的建议一样,也认为扩张看起来是必然的。希望屠宰加工商的扩张,特别是在美国当地的屠宰加工商,能够继续保持领先。然而,杀猪可能是最容易的部分。你还得销售猪肉。出口还需继续发展!
  
  Here courtesy of Bob Hunsberger, Wallenstein Farm Supply shows the driver of the upbeat mood. Projected profits currently for the next 12 months of $24.75 and present margins with average production of $44.88 and with excellent production of $63.30. Even with the suggested governors this makes expansion seem inevitable. Hopefully slated packer expansion particularly stateside continues to run ahead of the curve. However getting the pig dead may be the easy part. You still have to sell the meat. Here’s to exports continuing to roll!
  
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  全球大型生产商
  
  Global Mega Producer
  
  放眼全球,立足本地
  
  Think Globally, Act Locally
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  在世界猪肉博览会上,加裕公司与《全国养猪农》联合发起了全球大型生产商计划。此项计划认可了拥有超过10万头母猪的全球生产商。
  
  At the WPX Genesus in conjunction with the National Hog Farmer launched the Global Mega Producer Initiative.  The Initiative recognizes the Global Producers over 100,000 sows.
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